Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions view the resumption of peace talks between Mozambique’s President Filipe Nyusi of the ruling Frelimo party and Ossufo Momade, leader of the opposition party and former rebel group Renamo, as a positive signal for short-term stability ahead of the October 2019 general elections.
• However, with Frelimo likely to

Key View

• With Mozambique’s opposition and former rebel group Renamo suspending peace talks with the ruling Frelimo party after disputing the October 2018 municipal election results, risks of a return to political violence have risen.
• However, we at Fitch Solutions currently expect negotiations to resume in the coming months to allow the October

Key View:

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast Mozambique’s real GDP growth to increase from an expected 3.5% in 2018 to 3.9% in 2019 (revised up marginally from 3.8% previously).
• However, this figure is still notably below the 2006 to 2015 average of 7.3% before the country's hidden debt crisis began in 2016.
• We forecast a moderate increase in

Key View:

Th

Key View

• Following significant expansions in the agricultural and mining sectors in 2017, slower growth in these industries will see Mozambique's economic growth remain below its previous levels over the short term.
• Further headwinds will come from an ongoing lack of foreign donor funding, limiting capacity for public investment and weighing on

Key View:

• Although recent months have seen significant progress in peace negotiations between the ruling Frelimo party and opposition group, Renamo, there is still a risk of progress stalling, or even a breakdown in peace talks.
• The timeline for disarmament remains a hotly contested topic. For example, as of late June, Frelimo is refusing to

Increased activity in Mozambique's transport infrastructure project pipeline has prompted an upward revision to our construction growth forecast for 2017 and 2018, while delays to the start up of the Coral LNG project have pushed back our anticipation for a spike in industry growth to 2023 rather than in 2022. Overall the 10-year growth outlook for