Key View: Consumer spending in Mozambique will recover over 2021, as restrictions placed on movement and non-essential retail are lifted. We forecast real household spending to grow by 3.7% y-o-y over 2021, from the estimated 1.2% y-o-y contraction in 2020. Mozambique’s real household spending growth will continue on this positive trajectory over

Key View

• The variety of special purchase agreements that Mozambique has signed with international buyers reflects the growing flexibility in LNG contracts.
• Total’s pre-established special purchase agreements, combined with its immense financial backing, pave the way for project success.
• A highly volatile domestic security outlook and funding

Key View

• We maintain a stable outlook for the strong position occupied by Chinese and Portuguese construction firms in Mozambique’s construction industry, supported by increased cooperation between Chinese construction giant China Communication Construction Company (CCCC) and Portugal’s Mota-Engil.
• As a strong growth outlook in Mozambique

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that Mozambique’s budget deficit will widen from an estimated 1.5% of GDP in 2019 to 7.1% in 2020.
• Revenues will fall this year, due to lower capital gains and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on domestic economic activity, while spending will continue to rise.
• We see the deficit narrowing to 4.5% of

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that Mozambique's inflation rate will accelerate from an average of 2.8% y-o-y in 2019 to 4.4% in 2020 and 6.9% in 2021.This would be within the Banco de Moçambique’s (BM) 6.0-8.0% target range, but risks are to the upside due to currency depreciation and rising food prices.
• Following a 150 basis point

Key View

• Construction delays at the Total-operated Mozambique LNG project and ExxonMobil’s decision to delay its final investment decision for the Rovuma LNG project put downward pressure on the immediate growth of Mozambique’s construction sector.
• Lower natural gas prices will cut state revenues and, given high levels of government debt