Key View: The alcoholic drinks segment in Mozambique will see a strong level of growth over the medium term (2022-2026). A positive consumer outlook, owing to rising real disposable incomes and a moderation of Mozambique’s inflation, will facilitate greater spending on discretionary items, such as alcoholic drinks. As such, we highlight the beer

Key View

• Real household spending growth will be limited in 2022 at just 2.0% y-o-y and climbing up to 3.5% y-o-y in 2023 as the economy struggles under the weigh of structural constraints such as low incomes, poverty and economic mismanagement.
• Food and fuel price inflation is weighing heavily on organic growth and low- and mid-income

Key View

• At Fitch

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast that Mozambique’s current account deficit will narrow from an estimated 21.7% of GDP in 2021 to 15.7% in 2022, the smallest deficit since 2009.
• This will be driven primarily by very strong export performance, including a strong uptick in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports.
• That said, Mozambique’s

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect a strong economic rebound in Mozambique in 2022, as the lifting of social distancing restrictions boosts private consumption, while a somewhat more stable security environment supports stronger investment, particularly into the hydrocarbon sector.

• Moreover, while we anticipate a ramp up in consumer

Key View

• We forecast real household spending in Mozambique to grow by 2.4% over 2022, accelerating from 1.7% growth in 2021.
• In real terms, this is not above pre-Covid (2019) levels; however, consumer spending is on positive recovery path.
• Mozambique has a low Covid-19 vaccination rate by both regional and global standards. As of November 10

Key View

• Plans for the stalled Matola LNG import terminal are making progress. The project would help to ensure a reliable source of gas supply in Mozambique and provides upside risk for our gas consumption and import forecasts.
• Mozambique’s demand for gas remains relatively immature, though plans for LNG-to-power plants are materialising

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that the Banco de Moçambique (BM) will keep its policy rate at 13.25% at its September monetary policy committee meeting, before cutting by 100 basis points to 12.25% in Q421.
• Price pressures will remain under control while economic conditions will remain weak, creating sufficient room to lower the

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we have revised down our forecast for Mozambique’s 2021 real GDP growth from 3.2% to 2.8%, to account for the recent tightening of lockdown restrictions and delays to major investments in the gas sector.
• Real GDP growth returned to modest positive growth of 0.1% y-o-y in Q121, after contracting for three