Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that the Bank of Mauritius (BoM) will hold its policy interbank rate in H122, before hiking by 40 basis points (bps) to 2.25% in H222 as strengthening economic activity allows the BoM to normalise monetary policy.
• Above-average inflation and a global trend of monetary tightening will encourage the BoM

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we forecast that Mauritius’ current account deficit will narrow to 15.8% of GDP in 2021 from 16.6% in 2020.
• Although we expect a recovery in demand in key Mauritian export markets, merchandise imports will continue to outweigh merchandise exports.
• In 2022, the current account deficit will narrow to 12.8% of GDP

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast that Mauritius’ current account deficit will narrow slightly from an estimated 16.6% of GDP in 2020 to 16.2% of GDP in 2021.
• The trade deficit will narrow in USD terms as merchandise export growth exceeds that of imports. Meanwhile we expect a slight uptick in services exports in H221 as the tourism

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast the current account deficit to narrow from an estimated 12.4% of GDP in 2020 to 8.8% in 2021 and 6.8% in 2022 in Mauritius.
• A gradual recovery in the tourism sector from a collapse in 2020 will be the main factor narrowing the deficit.
• However, the deficit will remain large compared to historic

Key View

• The Mauritian economy faces unprecedented challenges in the quarters ahead.
• At Fitch Solutions, we have revised down our real GDP estimate for 2020 to -11.2%, from -8.2% previously, as a 'second wave' Covid-19 pandemic in Europe pushes back any meaningful recovery for the vital tourism sector.
• We then forecast real GDP growth of 6.7

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast a real GDP contraction of 8.2% in Mauritius in 2020, from estimated growth of 3.6% in 2019.
• The global Covid-19 pandemic will result in substantial near-term headwinds to tourism and export-oriented sectors, with domestic demand also set to weaken due to restrictions on citizen movement.
• We forecast

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast the current account deficit in Mauritius to expand to 11.4% of GDP in 2020 and to shrink to 8.8% in 2021, from an estimated 5.5% in 2019.
• Wide deficits will be the result of a collapse in revenues from the tourism sector, which will hit service exports.
• They will also reflect a deteriorating trade

Key View

• While Mauritius looks set to avoid a large domestic outbreak of the virus, the country's economy and tourism sector in particular will be hit by lower external demand and global travel restrictions.
• These factors will lead to a deterioration in labour market conditions and living standards in the coming quarters, implying an