Key View

• We have a positive outlook for consumer spending in 2022. Our 2022 forecast for real household spending is growth of 6.2%. The growth in spending will mainly be supported by the lifting of Covid-19 related restrictions. Furthermore, rising global oil prices in 2022 bode well for the wage and employment prospects of people employed in

Key View

• Consumer spending in Kuwait will post growth of 5.7% over 2022, a deceleration compared with 8.3% growth in 2021. However, this is mainly due to favourable base effects wearing off.
• Growth in the consumer spending will be supported by higher oil prices, which should lead solid economic growth. In addition, we expect the

Key View

• Kuwait’s construction industry will gain momentum in 2022 and continue its recovery path, following the resumption of construction activity in 2021 as the pandemic-related disruptions seen in 2020 ease.
• Transport infrastructure will be a major source of investment as the government seeks to implement the Kuwait Vision 2035 initiative

Key Risks:

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that Kuwait’s current account surplus will widen from 12.0% of GDP in 2021 to 13.4% of GDP in 2022.
• The widening of the surplus will be mostly driven by higher oil exports, which we think will rise by 13.0% in US dollar terms.
• The surplus will probably narrow over the longer term as oil exports

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect that the Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK) will continue to mirror the US Federal Reserve’s policy rate decisions, and maintain its benchmark discount rate at 1.50% through end-2022.
• While inflation has risen in 2021, cooling price growth in 2022 alongside a fairly sluggish economic rebound further underpin

Key View

• Kuwait will struggle to reduce its dependence on the oil and gas sector due to the simultaneous push to increase oil and gas output by 2040. However, oil export revenues will be critical to help implement the government’s ‘New Kuwait’ Vision 2035.
• Substantial upstream investment will be needed to achieve the robust crude oil and gas

Key View

• Kuwait’s gas production is expected to average 5.2% growth year-on-year to reach 28.9bcm in 2030, from an estimated 18.9bcm in 2020.
• However, we expect the country’s aim to produce 2.5bcf/d (25.8bcm annually) of non-associated gas by 2030 will fall short of expectations, due to a lack of sufficient projects coming on stream.
• Upside

Key View​​​​​​

• Growing number of partnerships with multinational drugmakers will help develop Kuwait’s pharmaceutical sector and increase access to high-value products.
• Increasing capacity to locally produce innovative medicines alongside improving regulatory controls will continue to attract multinational drugmakers.
• Kuwait’s pharmaceutical

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions believe that expansionary fiscal policy and easing Covid-19 restrictions will lift loan growth in Kuwait from 3.6% in 2020 to 4.0% in 2021.
• That said, restrictions on public debt issuance will likely weigh on wider asset growth over the coming quarters.
• Furthermore, we expect deposit growth will remain subdued