Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that Kenya’s real GDP will expand by 5.0% in 2022, down from an upwardly revised estimate of 7.1% in 2021 but in line with historical averages.
• Growth came in at a strong 9.9% y-o-y in Q321, and we expect that the decreasing economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic will continue to support private

Key View

• The new manufacturing plant by Square Pharmaceuticals in Kenya will significantly boost local production.
• An increase in local production will support export growth ahead.
• However, Kenya will maintain its trade deficit for pharmaceuticals over the coming years as imports continue to dominate the market.

Square Pharmaceuticals'

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we believe that the outcome of Kenya’s 2022 general election remains too close to call at this time.
• While Deputy President William Ruto and his United Democratic Alliance party are leading in the polls, support for Raila Odinga, leader of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement, is likely to rise further

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised our forecast for Kenya’s 2021 real GDP growth from 4.4% to 5.3% following stronger-than-expected growth of 10.1% y-o-y in Q221, but we remain below consensus.
• We expect growth to come in at a robust 5.0% in 2022 – revised down from 5.2% given less favourable base effects – as faster progress on

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we anticipate that Kenya's August 2022 general election will result in a victory for Deputy President William Ruto.
• Ruto's victory will bring a continued push for universal healthcare and business-friendly policies that multinational pharmaceutical companies will benefit from.
• Pharmaceutical companies will

Key View

• The new Covid-19 vaccine manufacturing plant in Kenya will boost local vaccine production and increase vaccine supply.
• An increase in local manufacturing will strengthen Kenya's pharmaceutical market and also support exports.
• Kenya will remain one of the most attractive prospect for companies looking to set up a manufacturing

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we retain our forecast of 4.4% real GDP growth in Kenya in 2021, after the release of rebased national accounts data showed that the economy expanded by 1.2% y-o-y in Q420 but contracted by 0.3% in 2020 as a whole.
• The Covid-19 pandemic will continue to weigh on the recovery of domestic demand in 2021, while

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect further progress on reforms aimed at improving fiscal management and transparency in Kenya over the coming quarters.
• However, domestic politics will largely be shaped by the run-up to the August 2022 general elections in the near term.
• Political alignments are likely to gravitate towards Deputy