Key View

• We hold an upbeat outlook for Kenya’s autos market in 2023, and expect total first vehicle registrations to grow by 6.7% y-o-y to 100,100 units.
• Two primary factors drive our broadly optimistic vehicle sales forecast – growing economic activity and reduced uncertainty following the country’s presidential elections in August 2022.

Key View

• Despite the Kenyan government’s plans to attract more private water investment, we do not expect a sustained increase of public private partnerships (PPPS) in the sector.
• Revenue generation for Water Service Providers (WSPs) will likely remain the key obstacle to greater private investment.
• Despite our bearish view on private

Key View

• In our Q422 Autos Investment Round-Up, South Africa continued to attract the majority of autos-related investments announced over the period as the country's well developed and relatively low risk market when compared to other countries in the SSA region remains a preferred investment destination.
• Kenya once again attracted

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that Kenya’s real economic growth will slow to 5.1% in 2023, from an estimated 5.4% in 2022.
• Consumer and business activity will weaken as a result of domestic headwinds such as continued drought conditions and fiscal consolidation, as well as slowing global growth.
• That said, weaker demand for

Key View: As the largest and most developed consumer market in East Africa, Kenya’s furniture and furnishing market will see a strong levels of household spending growth over the medium-term (2022-2026). While factors such as disposable income growth and urbanisation bode well for the industry’s prospects, risk such as the weakening of the

Key View

• Kenyan real GDP growth eased from 6.8% y-o-y in Q122 to 5.2% in Q222, and we at Fitch Solutions forecast a slowdown to 5.2% in 2022, from 7.5% in 2021.
• We expect that high price pressures will continue to weigh on consumer activity over the remainder of 2022, while fixed investment will remain below 2010-2019 levels.
• In 2023, we

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect that William Ruto will be sworn in as Kenya’s new president within the next two months, after securing a majority of votes in the August 9 general election.
• The outcome of the vote is likely to be challenged in court by the other main candidate, Raila Odinga, but we do not believe that any re-run would

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that the Central Bank of Kenya will hold its policy rate at 7.50% over the remainder of 2022, after unexpectedly holding the rate at its July 27 2022 policy meeting.
• Inflation is likely to peak between July and August 2022, reducing the need for further monetary tightening, which will also be

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect that Kenya’s August 2022 general elections will be very closely fought, with a strong chance of a disputed outcome.
• Our core scenario is that of former prime minister Raila Odinga and his Azimio la Umoja coalition win. In this scenario, we expect protests and violence to ensue, but risks to policy

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions retain our view that the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) will hike its policy rate by a further 50 basis points (bps) to 8.00% by end-2022, after a 50bps hike in May 2022.
• Inflationary pressures will persist over H222 amid the rally in global food and energy prices. This, along with aggressive tightening by the