Key View

• Kazakhstan will continue to dominate mining and metals production in Central Asia, but production in Uzbekistan will grow rapidly.
• Kazakhstan will increase exports of iron ore and copper in the coming decade, mainly destined for Mainland China. Coal production growth will be slow and mainly for domestic use. Steel capacity additions

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect economic growth in Kazakhstan to accelerate from an estimated 3.1% in 2022 to 3.4% in 2023.
• Growth will primarily benefit from recovering domestic demand as inflation cools and investment rises amid efforts to diversify supply chains impacted by the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.
• Risks to our

Key View

• We retain our bullish near-term outlook on Kazakhstan oil production, forecasting total liquids output to rise by 5.1% y-o-y in 2022 and 4.3% in 2023. Additional investments will be needed to sustain positive growth rates over the long run.
• Growth in 2022 will be weaker than initially targeted by the government, reflecting temporary

Key View:

• Kazakhstan aims to deploy 5G across its main cities by the end of 2022, posing upside risks to our forecasts; nevertheless, we see 5G uptake remaining below 20% by 2031 despite consumer demand in large cities such as Almaty and Nur-Sultan.
• Uptake will slow in the medium term as the country’s unfavourable geography will limit

Key View

• The war in Ukraine has increased political risk in Kazakhstan, with our Short-Term Political Risk Index score for the country now standing at a lower 69.7 out of 100, from 70.1 previously.
• The revision reflects increased risks of tensions with Russia and higher protests risks in light of a weaker macroeconomic backdrop.
• There is

Key View

• Retail sales in Kazakhstan is on an upwards trajectory after two years of lacklustre performance as a result of Covid-19-related social restrictions and political unrest.
• On January 1 2022, Kazakhstan resumed inbound international tourism and subsequently reopened both land and air borders. We expect this to aid the recovery of

Key View

• We expect Kazakh copper production of 776,100 tonnes in 2022, 803,270 tonnes in 2023, and 830,580 tonnes in 2024.
• President Tokaev’s call for higher taxes on the mining sector in exchange for more incentives to support exploration and new projects raises downside risks for Kazakhstan’s future export growth for copper and mining