Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions maintain our forecast for Italian real GDP to increase by 4.0% in 2022, after a 0.6% q-o-q expansion in Q421 pushed full-year growth in 2021 to a strong 6.5%.
• After a soft start to 2022, consumer spending will be supported by a tightening labour market and fixed investment will benefit from ongoing elevated

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• We have adjusted our refined fuels demand forecast for 2022 to 1.0%, down from 3.0%. Growth in 2021 surprised to the upside and lower base effects, combined with Italy’s strong Covid-19 restrictions have dampened our expectations for growth in 2022.
• We have subsequently revised our 2023 forecast up slightly to 1.5%, from 1.0%, to

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• Historically, Italy’s restrictive pharmaceutical expenditure ceiling has seen the pharmaceutical industry make significant repayments after exceeding spending caps.
• Government plans to soften the pharmaceutical clawback mechanism will see progressive increases in the pharmaceutical expenditure ceiling in a bid to attract

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• We at Fitch Solutions have raised our forecast for Italian GDP growth in 2021 from 4.6% to 6.2%, with growth set to remain well above trend at 4.0% in 2022.
• Domestic demand will drive the rebound in both 2021 and 2022, with consumer spending boosted by the release of pent-up demand post-lockdown and an improvement in labour market

Key View

• Public healthcare spending in Italy is set to decline over the coming years, reflecting the lower costs in managing the Covid-19 pandemic.
• A growing emphasis on cost-containment, driven by high public debt will weigh on pharmaceutical market growth.
• Nonetheless, the government has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthen the national

Key View

• We forecast real household spending in Italy to post positive growth, expanding by 5.0%. This follows a contraction of 11.5% over 2020 due to the negative impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the related restrictions on the country's economy.
• In 2022, we forecast real household spending growth to remain positive, expanding by 4.3.
• Wh

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• Road and bridge construction will see moderate growth over the coming decade in Italy, with average annual real growth of 1.2% y-o-y in industry value between 2021 and 2030.
• This growth will be supported by a large pipeline of road and bridge projects, with a high concentration of projects at the pre-construction stages, while a

Key View

• Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), made public by Italy’s government in April 2021, points to robust construction investment over the coming years, backed largely by funding made available by the EU’s NextGenerationEU programme, agreed upon by EU Member states in 2020.
• Within the transport sector, the PNRR points

Key View

• The Q120 flash GDP estimate came in at -4.8% y-o-y, and we have revised Italy’s real GDP growth forecast for 2020. We at Fitch Solutions now forecast the economy will contract by 13.7% in 2020, from -6.8% previously. In comparison, the economy grew by 0.3% in 2019.
• Services will continue to be the most negatively affected sector of