Key View

• A centre-right coalition including Brothers of Italy, the Lega and Forza Italia were successful in Italy’s parliamentary elections, and we now expect that Brothers of Italy’s Giorgia Meloni will form a government.
• Meloni has pledged to support Italy’s healthcare system overcome the effects of the pandemic if elected, and we expect

Key View: Growth in real household spending in Italy will decelerate in 2022 and 2023 from a high 2021 base, as economic growth slows and consumers feel the effects of rising inflation. We believe the true impact of a weaker economic environment will be felt over H222 and H123, as household savings are diminished and consumers grapple with

Key View

• While we at Fitch Solutions recently revised modestly higher our real GDP growth forecast for Italy in 2022 from 2.9% to 3.2%, we continue to project that the economy will expand by just 0.6% next year.
• After a strong 1.0% q-o-q expansion in Q222 (from 0.1% q-o-q in Q122), we believe that activity will quickly lose momentum as cost

Key View

• We are making a downward revision to our vehicle sales forecast for Italy, given worse than expected implications for vehicle sales stemming from the global semiconductor shortage and Mainland China's ‘Zero-Covid’ policy.
• We also expect cars to become increasingly unaffordable for Italian households, given higher vehicle prices, a

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised lower our proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) score for Italy from 72.5 down to 70.2 (out of 100).
• The updated score reflects a more unfavourable backdrop for policy-making amid increased infighting within the current government of national unity and the rising potential for early

Key View

• Our 2022 outlook for consumer spending growth is positive. We forecast spending to grow by 4.8% in 2022; however, it is a deceleration from the estimated 5.2% growth in 2021.
• Consumer spending growth will be supported by a tight labour market in 2022 with average unemployment (as a percentage of total labour force) projected to

Key View:

• Output from car manufacturing plants in Italy will continue to be adversely affected by stoppages and reduced working shifts as a consequence of the current shortage of semiconductors, which we expect to worsen due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and persist at least until the end of H123.
• We have made a downward revision to our

Key View

• Italy’s healthcare market is expected to undergo a major transformation focusing on community healthcare, with substantial investment from the country’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan.
• To reflect these proposals, we have revised upwards our forecasts for government healthcare spending, though an underlying focus on cost