Key Views

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised down our current account surplus forecast for Iraq from 9.7% of GDP to 8.9% in 2019 and from 9.5% of GDP to 7.3% in 2020.
• The downward revision reflects our Oil & Gas team’s lower oil price forecast for 2019 and 2020 as well as a stronger than previously expected increase in capital imports in 2019.

Key View:

• The reconstruction of Iraq’s power sector is set to benefit from competition between US and European companies for contracts being tendered for new power stations, refurbishment of existing infrastructure and upgrades of transmission and distribution (T&D) networks. This will help to address the country’s pressing power deficit, which

Key View:

• We at Fitch Solutions have lowered our forecasts for Iraq’s real GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 largely due to a deteriorating outlook for the oil sector.
• Oil production will come in lower than we previously estimated following the OPEC and non-OPEC group’s December 2018 decision to cut production in 2019.
• Despite lower production

Key View:

• Delays in negotiations on key appointments for security-related ministries illustrates the deep divisions within Iraq’s recently elected parliament.
• We still expect a cabinet to form eventually, enabling some progress on urgent economic measures.
• However, policymaking will remain extremely challenging, limiting the prospect of