Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we forecast that elevated energy prices and increased oil production will expand Iraq’s current account surplus from an estimated 12.8% of GDP in 2021 to 18.4% of GDP in 2022.
• While the surge in global wheat prices caused by the war in Ukraine will increase the cost of imports, this will only modestly temper the

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we forecast that Iraq’s fiscal surplus will expand from an estimated 2.0% of GDP in 2021 to 6.8% of GDP in 2022.
• Elevated oil prices and increased oil output due to the unwinding of the OPEC+ supply restrictions will be the main driver behind the improvement in Iraq’s fiscal position.
• Despite the political

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that Iraq’s real GDP growth will accelerate from an estimated 2.4% in 2021 to 5.4% in 2022.

• This marks a noticeable revision from our previous 2022 growth forecast of 3.9%, as the faster easing of mobility restrictions, due to progress with the handling of the pandemic, and lower inflation will

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that Iraq’s current account surplus will narrow from an estimated 12.9% of GDP in 2021 to 12.2% of GDP in 2022, as the lifting of travel restrictions will lead to a rebound in outbound tourism from a low base.

• We see limited risks to the country's external position in 2022. Elevated oil gains

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we believe Iraq's political risk will increase in the short term, prompting us to revise downward our Short-Term Political Risk Index score from 35.8 to 32.9.

• Forthcoming elections on October 10 and a high risk of political backlash will limit the new government's capacity to pass structural reforms, while

Key View

• Work on Iraq’s major construction projects is dominated by Turkish and American contractors, with domestic contractors often struggling to compete for larger contracts due to a lack of capacity and qualified personnel.
• Infrastructure projects are primarily financed by Iraqi governmental organisations and thus we note the risk of

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that Iraq’s current account deficit will narrow from 6.3% of GDP in 2020 to 3.7% in 2021, primarily on the back of oil price gains.
• We that expect goods imports will face a more gradual recovery as partial lockdown measures remain in place and fiscal consolidation dampens domestic demand.
• Gradually

Key View

• Iraq’s production is heading lower in 2020 by 3.0% to 4.56mn b/d driven by the impact of OPEC+ collapse combines with the fall in oil prices and wider global virus impacts.
• Political paralysis will limit the available options the Central Government can take to support the industry and keep social unrest to a minimum.
• Overall lowered

Key View

• Slower economic growth in 2020, on the back of political uncertainty amid persistent large-scale demonstrations, will restrict medical device market growth to 6.8% in 2020 before picking up to 10.3% in 2021 in local currency terms.
• Rising government spending as well as the reconstruction of damaged healthcare infrastructure in the

Key View

• Upstream production growth, social unrest and political instability will contribute to preventing Iraq from meeting its OPEC production cut targets in 2020. Iraqi crude and condensate output is set to expand in 2020 by 1% rather than decrease by 3%, which would be needed to achieve compliance.
• Increased OPEC+ production cuts raise