The Latest: On November 27, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a leading Iranian nuclear scientist, was killed near Tehran in a sophisticated operation, reportedly using a remote-controlled pickup truck. No actor has claimed responsibility for the attack, though the Iranian leadership blames Israel. The incident resembles previous killings of Iranian nuclear

Key View:

• Preliminary results point to a decisive victory for Iran’s hardliners and conservatives in the February 21 parliamentary elections. The results are reflective of a wider trend towards tightening hardline control over political space in the country.
• We do not expect the hardline win to translate into drastic policy changes in the near

Key View:

• US President Donald Trump appears to be in de-escalation mode, following Iran's downing of a US drone in the Gulf.
• Reports that Trump ordered a military strike on Iran but then changed his mind are likely part of a psychological campaign against Tehran.
• However, influential hardline voices in Washington and Tehran will sustain the

Key View

• We believe that the combination of escalating tensions, worsening manufacturing supply constraints and our view that the Iranian economy will fall into a deeper recession in 2019, will collectively depress the Iranian automotive sector in 2019.
• Lower oil exports will restrict the Iranian government's ability to spend which will

Key View: Iran may face greater instability over the coming years from political jockeying to succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who will turn 80 in 2019. Although Khamenei’s departure from the political scene is far from imminent, rising competition between Iran’s top figures and power centres could lead to more volatility in domestic

Key View:

• We at Fitch Solutions believe Iranian authorities are likely to devalue the official exchange rate and/or narrow the definition of 'basic goods' that qualify for imports at the current rate in 2019, as US sanctions restrict foreign currency inflows into the Islamic Republic.
• Any devaluation of the official rate will probably be