Key View

• Improving drilling activity poses upside risks to Indonesia’s crude oil production forecasts.
• Associated deepwater gas projects could offer upside risks to condensate production.
• Increasing dependency on imported crude oil is putting pressure on government to ramp up upstream exploration and production activities.
• Despite near term

Key View

• Indonesia faces a highly uncertain political outlook, as it marks the 25th anniversary of the start of its democratic transition and prepares for new elections in February 2024.

• Elevated perceptions of corruption and concerns about a curtailment of social freedoms suggest that social discontent and frequent protests will remain

Key View

• After briefly posting surpluses in 2021 and 2022, Indonesia’s current account will return to deficit in 2023. We expect a shortfall worth 1.0% of GDP, which is a bit wider than the consensus forecast.
• Exports will fall in 2023 as a result of flatlining commodity prices and a decline in bauxite production.
• Over the longer term, we

Key View

• Indonesia’s new Health Sector Growth Program will support growth of healthcare organisations and companies in the country.
• Indonesia will continue to implement measures designed to boost self-sufficiency in the pharmaceutical raw material sector to reduce dependence on imports
• Indonesia's pharmaceutical exports will see a positive

Key View

• Indonesia's economy expanded by a solid 5.0% y-o-y in Q123, but there are signs of underlying weakness in external and domestic demand.
• We think growth will slow over the coming quarters due to weakening global demand, softening global commodity prices and tight monetary conditions.
• We forecast growth to slow to a below-trend rate

Key View

• Bank Indonesia’s April decision to leave its key policy rate on hold at 5.75% was in line with our expectations, and we expect that it will leave rates on hold once more at the next meeting in May.
• However, we still think that further rate hikes remain on the cards, given the considerable amount of uncertainty that remains regarding

Key View

• Indonesia is experiencing significant growth in data centre investment to cater to growing digital demand.
• The country’s utilities and broadband infrastructure markets are struggling to keep up with the pace of economic activity and rising urbanisation.
• Despite operational risks, domestic natural resources and infrastructure

Key View

• Indonesia’s refining capacity lags behind fuel consumption growth leading to growing dependence on imports.
• Indonesia’s fuel market remains highly regulated by the government, hampering private investments.
• Refineries in Indonesia are loss-making state-owned entities because they historically sell refined fuels below production

Key View

• As President Jokowi's final term ends in 2024, we expect broad policy continuity from the next administration in regard to Jokowi's wider infrastructure development push and the development of the new capital Nusantara.
• Although we expect the future government of Indonesia to continue the pursuit of Jokowi’s infrastructure

Key View: Both of Indonesia's insurance sub-sectors should achieve mid-single-digit premium growth in 2023. Still elevated inflation and global financial market volatility will act as drags on short-term growth. Over the rest of our forecast period, prospects are bright as stable and robust real GDP growth should allow household incomes to rise