Key View

• The slowdown in Indonesian GDP growth from 5.2% y-o-y in Q2 2023 to 4.9% in Q3 was long overdue, and activity will remain muted over the coming quarters amid sluggish global demand and high domestic interest rates.
• We think that policy space will emerge before long, and rate cuts by Bank Indonesia will pave the way for growth to

The Latest: Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison (IOH) has announced its collaboration with Setara Networks (Tara), the parent company of Singapore-based fintech firm Indepay, to launch zero-fee instant transaction features on the telco's apps. We believe the latter service may further sideline commercial banks in Indonesia's digital payments market, as

The Latest: XL Axiata and Smartfren have entered into discussions about a potential merger, a move that would combine the two smallest players in Indonesia's highly competitive mobile market.

Implications: Talks have been held sporadically since 2021, but the Ministry of Communication and Informatics' (MCI) official confirmation suggests a

Key View

• Indonesia’s long-term fuel demand growth is expected to slow as the government seeks to diversify away from fossil fuels.
• Demand for transport fuels showed slower growth rates due to the government’s ongoing efforts to cut fuel subsidies.
• Indonesia’s fuel consumption faces downside risks stemming from various sources including

Key View: We forecast total EV sales to rise by 69.1% in 2023 to reach around 17,500 units. Battery electric vehicles will lead the growth in volume terms as more automakers launch fully electric models. Demand will also be driven by a value added tax reduction, as EVs will attract a VAT of 1%. Indonesia will achieve an EV penetration rate (total

Key

Key View

• We retain our view that Bank Indonesia (BI) will keep its key policy rate on hold at 5.75% until the end of 2023, with cuts materialising in Q224.
• While inflation has moderated back to BI’s target range, cutting rates too early would risk adding depreciatory pressure on the rupiah while global monetary conditions remain tight.

On

Key View

• We hold a positive outlook for household goods growth in Indonesia over short and the medium term (2023-2027). Within the household goods spending categories, we forecast glass, tableware and utensils spending to be the outperforming category over the next five years.
• An attractive demographics and middle-class expansion, plus the