Key View

• India’s economic diplomacy is unlikely to gain significant momentum this year despite the government’s renewed efforts to strengthen bilateral trade ties with major economies.
• India has a poor track record of trade liberalisation, and its most recent ban on wheat exports is illustrative of how quickly the government can revert to

Key View

• On 14 May 2022, the Indian government announced an immediate ban on wheat exports, having earlier downplayed reports that it was considering restricting trade in an attempt to protect domestic consumers from rising food prices, against a backdrop of lower-than-expected wheat production and wider concerns about food security.
• At Fitch

Key View

• Real household spending in India is on an upward trajectory after two years of weakened performance resulting from Covid-19-related social restrictions and economic disruption. Real household income in 2022 will exceed figure posted in 2019 and will resume positive growth over the medium term (2022-2026).
• Over the medium term, real

Key View

• The Reserve Bank of India’s surprise decision to hike the repo rate by 40bps on May 4 has prompted us to raise our forecast for the benchmark policy rate; we now expect it to reach 5.15% by the end of FY2022/2023 (which runs from April to March).
• Inflation - which is now a primary concern for the central bank - is set to remain above

Key View

• India's mobile-led rapid digitalisation and improved macroeconomic profile provide super apps like Tata Neu an opportunity to enter and grow organically.
• Over the medium term (2022-2026), the real incomes of Indian consumers will grow by an average of 5.2% annually. This will provide Indian households with a higher propensity to

Key View

• Emerging plasmid DNA vaccines will increase Covid-19 vaccine uptake, particularly in lower-middle income countries.
• We expect to see more DNA vaccine approvals for Covid-19 in the short term; however, we expect COVAX to continue to be the main provider of Covid-19 vaccines due to cost and efficacy.
• We at Fitch Solutions expect to

Key View

• In the short term, we expect downside risks to India’s solar capacity growth to alleviate as the government of India postpones restrictions on imported solar equipment use by six months.
• We maintain our solar capacity forecasts as India implements basic custom duties on imported solar modules and cells, increasing the costs of solar

Key View

• We expect growth in India’s construction industry to moderate from 2022, as base effects normalise. Over the near term, we highlight downside risks due to persistent supply chain disruptions and sharp increases in construction material prices.
• Over the longer term, growth will continue to be robust, amid supportive regulatory

Key View

• Our ICT team expects India’s spending on cloud computing to increase over the coming years, which is partly the result of a rising demand for data centres in the market.
• India’s increase in data centres will contribute to the increasing power consumption that the market will experience.
• The market’s rising power consumption will be

Key View

• Real GDP growth came in at 5.4% y-o-y in the quarter ending in December and was below consensus estimates of 6.0%.
• At Fitch Solutions, our full year growth forecast for the Indian economy remains unchanged and we continue to forecast real GDP growth of 8.6% in FY21/22 (Fiscal year runs from April-March), which is below Bloomberg