Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions still see heightened political risks in Hong Kong despite the recent lull in protests following the Covid-19 outbreak.
• There are four main factors driving this view, including key issues remaining unresolved, a more polarised society, perceived government incompetence in handling the outbreak and poor economic

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect unrest to persist after the District Council Elections on November 24, which saw the pan-democrats win 347 out of 452 seats contested, and the independents (many of whom are also pro-democracy) win 45 seats.
• Protesters appear still determined to push for their Five Demands to be met and while Beijing could

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions maintain the views contained in our last scenarios piece analysing the possible outcomes to the unrest in Hong Kong, but highlight increasing risks of direct intervention by Beijing.
• While we still believe a more determined crackdown carried out by the Hong Kong police is the most likely next step, we wish to

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions are maintaining our 2.0% real GDP growth forecast for 2019 despite the weak reading of 0.5% y-o-y in Q119, reflecting our belief that the economy has likely bottomed out in Q119.
• Private consumption and gross fixed capital formation, the two main drags on growth in Q119, will likely pick up over the coming months

Key View:

• Although past its growth peak, food spending by Hong Kong consumers will continue to increase, driven by value growth, as consumers move up price-points to purchase higher quality food products.
• In terms of food spending breakdown, consumers are spending of the most on meat and poultry and seafood although consumers are increasingly

Editor’s Note: This is a two-part series examining the implications of the plan to develop the Pearl River Delta Greater Bay Area. In this second part, we analyse the political implications.

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect the harmonisation of regulations in the Pearl River Delta Greater Bay Area to be impeded by inter-city rivalry

Editor’s Note: This is a two-part series examining the implications of the plan to further develop the Pearl River Delta Greater Bay Area. In this first part we analyse the economic implications.

Key View

• Hong Kong’s economy will likely continue integrating with the Chinese Mainland over the coming years under the Pearl River Delta Greater Bay

Our view that the burgeoning panda bond market will continue to eat into the appeal of the more established dim sum bond market has been strengthened by the publication of new rules by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) last month that standardise the issuance procedures for the market for yuan-denominated debt issued in China by overseas firms

Key View

• We remain pessimistic on Hong Kong's economic growth outlook over the coming quarters as external headwinds stemming from the ongoing US-China trade conflict are likely to intensify further.
• This will likely result in negative spill-over effects to soften private consumption growth due to weaker employment in the trade and logistics