Key View

• An increase in healthcare spending will equate to more testing kits, pharmaceuticals, equipment and bed capacity available to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic.
• As the number of fatalities is much lower than anticipated, the government has started to ease the lockdown in order to reopen the economy.
• As a result of Covid-19, GDP is

Key View

• Ghana has become the first African country to lift its Covid-19 related lockdown and so we foresee real household spending in the country to start to recover over the rest 2020.
• As such, our downward revision for total household spending is not as drastic as projected in other countries.
• An uptick in infections of Covid-19 and a

Key View:

• Ghana’s nascent vehicle production industry will face considerable delays in 2020 due to supply chain disruptions in major automotive production hubs across the globe, leading to delays in the shipments of critical automotive components to carry out vehicle assembly operations.
• The passage of the Customs Amendment Bill bodes well

Key View

• Steps taken by the Ghanaian government to introduce an automotive industry policy is a step in the right direction towards establishing the country’s automotive industry.
• Limiting imported vehicles by hiking import tariffs with concessions for local assemblers, bodes well for the development of a new vehicle sales market in the

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that the election due in late 2020 is unlikely to prevent broad policy continuity, given our expectation for the incumbent government’s re-election.
• There is minimal threat to political stability from the election process due to Ghana’s well-entrenched constitutional norms and institutions, despite a

Key View

• Government support for healthcare is good by regional standards but Ghana still relies on external stakeholders for many aspects of the provision of medical services.
• There is limited uptake of advanced pharmaceuticals, medical devices and procedures in Ghana.
• Ghana’s once-celebrated National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) will

Key View

• Ghana’s high borrowing rates will remain an impediment to an uptick in new passenger vehicle sales over our 2019-2028 forecast period.
• Purchases will be restricted to cash transactions, as access to vehicle financing options for most Ghanaians remains largely restricted as most consumers do not have access to the necessary financial

Key View

• Toyota's decision to set up vehicle assembly operations in the West African region (specifically Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire) offers some rewards to the automaker, however, it also exposes Toyota to significant risks.
• Ghana is the stronger investment choice as its political stability and strong economic growth, coupled with the

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect that the Bank of Ghana (BoG) will keep its key policy rate of 16.00% unchanged in 2019 and 2020, on balanced risks.
• Further easing is unlikely given robust growth and the potentially serious risks to fiscal and external account stability posed by any recurrent sell-off in the cedi.
• Monetary tightening

New Forecast

• We have revised down our construction growth forecast for Ghana in 2019 and 2020, and we are now expecting the industry to expand by 3.4% y-o-y and 5.8% y-o-y respectively, down from 7.3% and 7.4% previously. Beyond 2020, our forecast remains unchanged, averaging 6.8% y-o-y to 2028.