Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions believe that political risk in Ghana will increase over the coming months due to growing division within the ruling party.
• Indeed, an 80-member faction within the ruling New Patriotic Party opposed to Finance Minister Ken Ofori Atta could paralyse policymaking in order to pressure President Nana Akufo-Addo into

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that the Bank of Ghana (BoG) will continue its hiking cycle, raising the monetary policy rate to 24.00% by year-end, after having hiked by 300 basis points (bps) to 22.00% at its emergency meeting in August.

• Inflation will remain elevated - driven by the rapid depreciation of the cedi - and will

Key View

• In the near term, we expect increased revenue risks and higher elevated project costs to weigh on private sector investment in Ghana’s infrastructure sector.
• In the medium term, Ghana will likely recover as a supportive market for private infrastructure investment in Sub-Saharan Africa, as revenue and project cost risks subside and

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we forecast that the Ghanaian current account deficit will narrow to 2.8% of GDP in 2022, from 3.2% in 2021.
• The trade surplus will widen on elevated global commodity prices, although this will be partly offset by a widening primary income deficit, caused by rising interest expenditure on external debt.
• Despite a

Key View: The Ghanaian dairy segment will see significant growth over the medium-term, aided by growing real disposable incomes and demand for dairy products. The dairy segment has benefitted from improving road infrastructure and refrigeration facilities and the increasing formalisation of the grocery shopping experience which has all

Key View

• We forecast Ghana’s construction industry to grow by 4.1% y-o-y in 2022, a slowdown compared to the estimated growth of 5.7% y-o-y in 2021. Ghana’s infrastructure construction industry is unlikely to benefit from higher oil and gold prices, as we expect that increased public revenues will be channelled towards debt servicing and Ghana

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that real GDP growth in Ghana will slow to 4.4% in 2022, from 5.4% in 2021, as inflationary pressures rise and investor sentiment weakens.
• While private consumption will be the key driver of growth in 2022, households will face significant headwinds from high inflation and fiscal consolidation measures

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we continue to expect Ghanaian real GDP growth to come in below its historic trend in 2022 at 4.8%, following estimated growth of 5.0% in 2021.
• Elevated inflation will dampen consumer confidence and spending, whereas falling oil and cocoa production will weigh on exports.
• While fixed investment will accelerate as