Key View

• We believe that IMF assistance will improve economic conditions in Ghana and therefore limit risks to social stability in 2023 and 2024.
• The government will likely meet IMF targets over the coming months as opposition lawmakers will only offer modest pushback against economic reforms.
• We believe that the opposition National

Key View

• We believe that the Bank of Ghana (BoG)’s tightening cycle has come to an end.
• The central bank kept the benchmark interest rate on hold at 29.50% at the May monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting. As inflation will continue to moderate over the coming months, we expect that the BoG will hold again at the next MPC meeting in July.

Key View

• We forecast that the Ghanaian economy will expand by a weak 2.9% in 2023, after growth of 3.1% in 2022.
• Fiscal austerity, high inflation and restrictive financial conditions will dampen private consumption and investment through 2023, clouding economic growth prospects.
• We forecast that real GDP growth will remain below trend at 3.7

Key View

• The sale of Aker Capital AS’s shares in their Ghana subsidiary Aker Energy AS has removed significant headwinds for the Pecan Development Project, which we believe will reach a Final Investment Decision (FID) by 2024.
• We expect Ghana’s crude oil, NGL, and other liquids production to reverse declines over the near-term and see medium

Key View

• We anticipate that the Bank of Ghana (BoG) will follow up the 150 basis-point (bps) rate hike in March with a 100bps increase to 30.50% at its May monetary policy committee meeting as inflation remains high.
• Thereafter, we expect that the BoG will keep the policy rate on hold as inflation comes down more substantially and economic

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we think that Ghana’s client loan growth will ease from 30.2% y-o-y in 2022 to 18.0% in 2023. This is because of the weak macro backdrop, fallout from the domestic debt restructuring and base effects.
• We think banks will be more selective with the sectors they lend to especially as we expect loan quality to

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect Ghana’s total liquids production to see moderate growth in the near term, with crude, NGL and other liquids production increasing from 142,440b/d in 2022 to 145,390b/d in 2024 following recent investments in the Jubilee and TEN fields.
• While these investments will prevent significant short-term declines

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect that the Ghanaian economy will weaken in 2023, with real GDP growth slowing to 2.9%, from an estimated 3.3% in 2022.
• While healthy export growth will provide some support to the economy, domestic demand will soften on still-elevated price pressures, fiscal consolidation and weaker access to credit for