Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that conflict in northern Ethiopia will remain a major source of political instability over the coming quarters.
• While our core scenario is that fighting should subside by H222, risks of a more protracted conflict are elevated, and tensions between the federal government and the Tigray People’s

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) will continue to struggle to control inflation over the coming quarters.
• We forecast that inflation will accelerate further over Q421 and remain elevated at an average of 25.0% in 2022, as conflict in the northern Tigray and Amhara regions continues to weigh on

Key View

• In 2025, Ethiopian households will allocate 34.8% of their household budgets to food, a decrease when compared to 42.9% in 2017. While disposable incomes are still low, they have been growing, allowing for households to gradually reduce their proportional spending on food.
• Meat and poultry spending, bread, rice and cereals spending

Key View

• We forecast real household spending in Ethiopia to decelerate to 3.0% y-o-y over 2021 from 5.8% y-o-y over 2020. In 2021, private consumption will be weighed down by insecurity in Tigray, the continued impact of Covid-19, headwinds to the agricultural sector and declining support from the government.
• In 2022, we forecast real

Key View

• The Kilinto Industrial Park will continue to attract pharmaceutical companies into Ethiopia.
• Incentives earmarked for investors in the park will reduce operating costs while also supporting both pharmaceutical market and export growth.
• However, Ethiopia's traditionally state-driven economic model will continue serve as a barrier to

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast that Ethiopia’s real GDP growth will slow from an estimated 6.5% in 2020 to 2.0% in 2021 – the lowest level in almost two decades.
• Private consumption growth will moderate amid the continued spread of Covid-19, weak agricultural production prospects, and insecurity in the Tigray region and other parts

Key View: We hold a positive medium-term (2021-2025) outlook for Ethiopia’s alcoholic drinks market, with the recovery in economic activity leading to increased alcoholic drinks consumption. Ethiopian consumers will continue to face Covid-19 related headwinds, especially related to increased risks of renewed restriction, however, we believe that

Key View: We forecast real household spending in Ethiopia to accelerate to 2.2% y-o-y from 0.8% y-o-y in 2020. However, private consumption will be weak by historical terms as the agricultural sector - which is a key source of employment - struggles in 2021 due to a poor harvest and a worsening political situation in Tigray. On January 6 2021

Key View

• Ethiopia’s government will continue to improve the enabling environment for public-private partnerships, as an expected victory in the 2021 elections for incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will likely facilitate policy continuity, and the country’s recent accession to the New York Convention affirms a commitment to liberalisation