Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions believe that the recently signed peace agreement between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front will gradually improve domestic security in the coming quarters.
• However, risks of re-escalation persist, while rising food insecurity and high levels of internal displacement will

Key View:

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that coffee production in East Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda) will grow by 2.2% in 2022/23, led by Uganda, followed by Kenya and Ethiopia while we expect Tanzania’s output to decline.
• Over our forecast period, between 2021/22 and 2025/26, we expect that East African coffee production

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect Ethiopia’s current account deficit will widen from an estimated 4.4% of GDP in 2021 to 4.9% in 2022.
• Higher food and fuel prices will increase the import bill and widen the merchandise trade deficit. That said, strong secondary income inflows will prevent a wider current account deficit.
• We expect the

Key View

• Ethiopia's beer market dominates the formal alcoholic drinks segment in the coutnry, accounting for 98.9% of total consumption in the sector in 2022. With Africa's second largest population, brands such as Diageo, Heineken and the Castel Group have targeted Ethiopia, creating a highly competitive beer market.
• We forecast 30% y-o-y

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions believe that the truce between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front will improve Ethiopia's security situation over the coming months.
• As a result, we have revised up Ethiopia's score in our proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index to 38.8 out of 100, from 34.7 previously (higher

Key View

• We project real household spending growth to accelerate in 2022 when compared to 2021, as fighting in the Northern Tigray region that has been weighing on economic activity in the country is contained.
• That being said, we highlight several risks to the outlook over 2022, especially in H122, including elevated inflation and the

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast that Ethiopia’s current account deficit will widen from an estimated 3.2% of GDP in 2021 to 3.4% in 2022.
• Export growth will be muted in 2022, whilst import growth will accelerate on the back of strengthening domestic demand.
• We forecast that the deficit will then narrow in 2023, to 3.2% of GDP, as

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we have revised up our 2022 real GDP growth forecast for Ethiopia from 3.6% to 5.6% to take account of the country’s improving security situation.
• Fighting between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front is likely to be contained in the Tigray region over the coming quarters, supporting

Key View

• Our forecast for real household spending is growth of 4.0% in 2022, which is an acceleration compared with 2021. Over the 2022-2025 period, we forecast real household spending growth to be positive, aided by the gradual recovery in economic activity.
• Our core view is that fighting in the north will subside by H222 amid growing

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast that real GDP growth in Ethiopia will slow from an estimated 6.5% in 2020 to just 2.0% in 2021, as conflict in the north disrupts agricultural activity and investment.
• Fighting will likely subside by H222, which will facilitate a recovery in economic growth to 6.3% in 2022, largely on the back of an