Key View

• Ecuador’s public healthcare system continues to face significant challenges.
• Ecuador’s economy expected to recover in 2021, however, risks remain.
• Pharmaceutical growth to remain in low-single digits.

Ecuador’s public healthcare system continues to face significant challenges. This includes the rise of chronic disease as the

Key View

• We maintain a positive growth outlook for Ecuador’s nascent non-hydro renewables sector, in which we forecast non-hydro renewables electricity capacity will grow 260% between 2020 and 2029.
• Supporting our view, we highlight the recent successful conclusion of wind and solar tenders, which will add 310MW in wind and solar capacity by

Key View

• Ecuador’s pharmaceutical market remains unattractive to foreign R&D-based firms.
• The pharmaceutical trade deficit is expected to widen.
• Ecuador’s deep recession will undermine the sustainability of pharmaceutical funding growth.

Ecuador’s pharmaceutical market remains unattractive to foreign R&D-based firms. Branded generics and

Key Views

• Ecuador’s automotive production industry faces the risk of collapse as the country heads for a deep recession triggered by the outbreak of Covid-19 and falling oil prices.
• Disrupted imports from Europe and North America and the growing popularity of Chinese brands in Ecuador will provide a short-term opportunity for them to increase

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect popular opposition to austerity measures will constrain Ecuador’s ability to enact fiscal reform in line with its IMF financing agreement.
• At the same time, low oil prices and sluggish economic activity will weigh on revenues, widening the fiscal deficit from an expected 1.2% of GDP in 2019 to 3.1% and 2

Key View

• Ecuador’s transport sector will see a decline in infrastructure investment in 2020 and 2021 as public spending will remain subdued amidst budget cuts while elevated risks in the market will prevent a full realisation of the government’s PPP plans.
• The country’s road and bridge sector will stand out as a key focus of investment

Key View

• Changing ownership of two operators provides the catalyst for a resurgence in competition in Ecuador's mobile market, with opportunities likely to emerge in the low-cost voice and data segments as well as the youth market.
• Virgin Mobile's investment in a new MVNO would not be risk-free, however, as market conditions in Ecuador are

Key View

• Ecuador has made a significant investment in the provision of government-funded pharmaceuticals.
• The country nevertheless remains unattractive to foreign R&D-based firms.
• Recession risks undermine sustainability of pharmaceutical funding growth.

Ecuador has made a significant investment in the provision of government-funded

Key View

• As expected, Telefonica is eyeing more regional asset divestitures to pay down its debt and reduce its exposure to slow-growth markets.
• Ecuador still has growth potential, so Telefonica could attract interest for its unit there, but potential investors could be side-tracked by developments at incumbent CNT.

Reportedly, Telefonica i

Key View

• Cheaper vehicle imports from the EU will pressure Ecuador’s car manufacturers further, leading them to reconsider their production strategies in the country.
• A slowing economy will act as a drag on Ecuador’s vehicle sales, leaving the country’s car manufacturers vulnerable to falling consumer spending.
• Despite a stronger start, we