Key view: Over 2021, Cote d’Ivoire’s alcoholic drinks sector will begin its recovery from the negative impact that the Covid-19 pandemic had on alcoholic drinks spending and consumption in 2020. In a bid to curb the spread of the virus in 2020, the country’s authorities ordered the shuttering of on-trade establishments such as restaurants, bars

Key View

• The Cote D’Ivoire Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) sector offers attractive opportunities for expansion. We project real household spending to grow by 6.2% y-o-y in 2021, however, it will be from a low base following the -3.7% y-o-y contraction in 2020 due to the negative impact of Covid-19 on disposable incomes.
• Ivorian consumers will

Key View

• In the short term, we expect Covid-19-related downward pressures on consumer spending and increased price-sensitivity among the middle-income group to support the smaller construction projects in the budget retail sector instead of high-value mall construction.
• In the long term, the increase of middle- and high-income households in

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect Côte d’Ivoire to be a regional outperformer in 2020. While growth is set to slow markedly in the face of the Covid-19 outbreak, expansion of 1.8% this year is well above the regional average, of -3.8% .
• Prices of Côte d’Ivoire key cocoa exports have held up well, meaning that net exports will make a

Key View

• Demand for new vehicles in Côte d'Ivoire will decline in 2020 as an uncertain economic outlook slashes spending on non-essential items such as vehicles.
• Passenger vehicle sales will slow considerably from 2019 levels as diminishing employment expectations amid a slowing economy leads to low demand for financing high-value goods such

Key View

• We have revised down our forecast for real GDP growth in 2020 to 6.5%, compared with our previous forecast of 7.1% and estimated growth of 7.5% in 2019.
• We expect private consumption to be supported by rising rural incomes in 2020.
• However, the outlook for external demand has deteriorated since the start of 2020 owing to the global

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that Côte d'Ivoire’s fiscal deficit will narrow very slightly in 2020 on the back of strong revenue growth and contained personnel costs.
• That said, we expect that high capital spending and rising debt servicing costs will prevent faster fiscal consolidation.
• In line with these expectations, we forecast

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we expect that rising cocoa production and robust activity in the construction sector will help support strong economic growth in 2019 and 2020.
• Construction growth and high consumer demand will also act as tailwinds for economic expansion over the long term.
• There remains some downside risks to our growth

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that the Ivorian current account deficit will narrow slightly on higher cocoa export revenue and declining oil prices, reducing the cost of a key import.
• Deficits will remain, however, driven by high demand for capital goods imports and increased external debt servicing costs.
• Over our forecast period