Content type

Balanced Risks To China's 2021 Growth Forecast

Country Risk / China / Thu 15 Jul, 2021

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions maintain our 2021 real GDP growth forecast of 8.5%, following the release of Q221 growth data that showed the economy expanded by 7.9% y-o-y in Q221.
  • We still expect a gradual strengthening of domestic demand over the coming months, particularly with a tightening labour market which will boost private
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Strong Exports Growth To Bolster China's Current Account Surplus

Country Risk / China / Tue 25 May, 2021

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions forecast China’s current account surplus to come in at 2.3% of GDP in 2021, representing a slight narrowing from 2.5% in Q121 but wider than 2.0% of GDP in 2020.
  • We expect the current account to remain supported by strong exports growth over the coming months, amid by a global recovery especially in the US
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China Census 2020 Confirms Challenging Demographic Future

Country Risk / China / Thu 20 May, 2021

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions maintain our view that China’s fiscal situation will come under heavy pressure from mounting demographic challenges over the coming years.
  • Further support for our view has come in the form of the 2020 census results released on May 11 after a month-long delay, showing sharply declining fertility rates and a
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Slow Vaccinations To Weigh On China's 2021 Recovery

Country Risk / China / Fri 16 Apr, 2021

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions now forecast real GDP growth of 8.5% in 2021, compared to 10.2% previously, reflecting downside risks from a slow pace of vaccinations, likely tightening of liquidity and a slower Q121 growth figure than we had expected.
  • Private consumption growth will be impacted by the likely inability to achieve herd immunity
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China Dairy: Local Brands Gain Prominence, International Players Adjust Their Strategy

Agribusiness / China / Fri 16 Apr, 2021

Key View

  • The Chinese dairy market is as attractive as ever, amid strong prospects for both volume and value growth across an increasing number of products. It is also increasingly competitive as local players have ambitious expansion plans that risk eating into international brands' businesses. Central authorities are also aiming at boosting
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