Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect the Chinese authorities to maintain loose monetary policy through 2022 in order to support economic activity, after the People’s Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio by 25bps for all banks on April 15.
• We now see diminishing scope for further easing given that the increasing divergence in

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised our 2022 growth forecast down to 4.5% from 5.2% previously, following the release of Q122 data showing real GDP grew by 4.8% y-o-y.
• The revision reflects the expected impact of Covid-related lockdowns on the economy, especially on private consumption.
• Our base case posits containment of the current

Key View

• Since October 2021, the Chinese yuan has been trading broadly stable within a narrow range of CNY6.31/USD to CNY6.40/USD, but we see growing downside risks to the currency.
• Fundamental pressures including a sharp slowdown in growth due to lockdowns, narrowing yield differentials with the US as well as rising capital outflows pose

Key View: Retail sales for the first two months of year contains the important Lunar New Year period, where consumer spending is traditionally high, in comparison with other periods across the year. While the Covid-19 pandemic has altered the way Chinese consumer spend, with this impact still on display in 2022, overall spending remains strong

Key View

• We expect transport infrastructure development to remain a key focus of infrastructure investment in China over the coming years, with strong government support for the sector.
• The expansion of China’s high-speed rail (HSR) network will remain a key focus for investment over the coming years.
• China will also see a rapid expansion of