Editor’s Note: This is a two-part series about China’s changing demographic trends and the government’s policy responses. In this first part, we discuss China’s plan to remove restrictions on child births to counter fast-deteriorating demographics and its likely ineffectiveness.

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• The Chinese government’s plan to allow couples to have as

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• Sentiment within the Chinese residential property market is souring amid softening home sales and failed land auctions, and we therefore expect the strong real estate fixed asset investment (FAI) growth to weaken over the coming quarters.
• Declining property FAI growth is likely to add another layer of pressure to the Chinese economy

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• Despite elevated trade tensions between the US and China, we expect some soybean trade between the two countries to resume in the coming months as the Brazilian 2017/18 export season ends, but China will revert back to Brazilian soy as soon as it can when the 2018/19 harvest starts in Q119.
• Brazilian soybean prices, which have recently

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• We maintain our expectations for a slowdown in the Chinese economy to 6.7% in 2018 and 6.4% in 2019, following Q318 real GDP growth of 6.5% y-o-y - the slowest pace since March 2009. The slowdown was due to government efforts to tighten domestic credit conditions through stricter regulations on shadow financing, coupled with rising US

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• The global luxury market looks set for a slowdown as one of the biggest markets for luxury, China, ramps up border crackdowns on undeclared overseas luxury purchases.
• The economic slowdown and rising US-China trade tensions further dampen the luxury spending outlook for Chinese consumers as we head towards 2019.
• We view these

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• China will emerge as the fastest expanding EV market globally by some margin over the next decade. Given the country's wind and solar power integration issues, coupled with vast grid investments, we expect the market to aim to leverage vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology over the coming decade.
• Coal generation overcapacity will mean

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• China will be the regional leader in rolling out smart speakers which will drive voice-based e-Commerce development.
• China's key role in this trend is being supported by favourable government regulations, entry of domestic technology companies and price discounts.
• Challenges do exist as voice assistants are unable as yet to provide

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A regulatory overhaul and delays on video-game licensing has impacted Tencent's share value and driven a rare decline in profits. We believe that this is a temporary setback but as we foresee increased scrutiny by the government into video-games, Tencent must continue to explore other sources of revenues, namely online advertising and

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• Strong regulatory support will drive the smart city push in China.
• Privacy and cybersecurity issues will be the main areas of concern.
• Success will be contingent on the receptiveness of municipal governments.

Background

Smart city initiatives in China gained traction after the 12th Five-Year plan. It highlighted the use of digital

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• The need for Chinese hospitals to meet the significant demand for medical services will see healthcare providers look towards technology to enhance their operational efficiency.
• Development of various state-level guidelines will further encourage the use of disruptive technology in China's healthcare sector.
• AI will transform the