Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions are revising down our long-term Chile production forecasts in light of a range of factors limiting investment in the sector. We now anticipate annual production to reach 7.2mnt by 2031, down from 8.9mnt previously.
• In particular, we are highlighting the likelihood of policy changes made by the constitutional

Key View

• Chile’s National Investment plan continues to support the construction of new hospitals and primary healthcare centres across the country.
• Rising hospital bed availability will improve healthcare access nationwide.
• Drugmakers stand to benefit from higher demand for drugs and access to previously underserved communities.

Nation

Key View

• The victory of Gabriel Boric in Chile’s presidential run-off election as well as Chile's ongoing constitutional convention will see elevated uncertainty persist across both the infrastructure and power industries over the near term, posing a challenge to investment.
• We retain a relatively strong growth outlook for infrastructure

Key View

• Chile’s economic growth will slow sharply in 2022, reflecting the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, likely disruptions from the Omicron variant of Covid-19 and political uncertainty.
• We at Fitch Solutions forecast 2.2% real GDP growth in 2022. This is down from 2.8% previously due to less favourable base effects, after we revised our

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we believe that leftist Gabriel Boric will most likely defeat right-wing candidate José Antonio Kast in Chile’s second-round presidential election on December 19, as Boric benefits from rising support for left-leaning candidates and widespread disapproval of centre-right incumbent President Sebastián Piñera.
• If

Key View

• Following a slight lead from right-wing Kast, the second round of the Chilean presidential election on December 19 2021 is too close to call.
• Kast’s fiscal consolidation policy diverges from opposition candidate, left-wing Boric, who looks to increase healthcare spending significantly.
• However, increasing drug pricing regulations is

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast that real GDP growth in Chile will slow from 11.0% in 2021 to 2.5% in 2022 as base effects from the 5.8% contraction in 2020 fade and monetary and fiscal stimulus are withdrawn.
• These represent revisions from our previous 2021 and 2022 forecasts of 8.5% and 3.9% respectively. Substantial fiscal stimulus

Key view

• We are highlighting strong upside risk to our long-term lithium production forecasts for Chile, in light of the government’s announcement in October 2021 that it would be inviting tenders for the exploration and production of 400,000 tonnes of lithium.
• Given the country’s accessible and very substantial lithium reserves, the move is

Key View

• Reforms in line with Chile’s National Drug Policy will continue to reduce out-of-pocket spending in the country.
• The impending approval of Drug Law 2 will significantly increase access to affordable and generic drugs in Chile.
• Cost-containment will play a part in reducing pharmaceutical expenditure over the coming years, posing

Key View: We forecast real household spending in Chile to begin to recover in 2021, growing by 8.5% y-o-y, after the Covid-19 pandemic led to an estimated contraction of 7.6% y-o-y in 2020. Despite having one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, the country is adopting a cautious approach towards restrictions and although they are