Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised down Bulgaria’s score in our bespoke Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) from 64.8 to 62.5 to indicate increased stability risks as the ruling coalition has lost its majority in the Bulgarian national assembly.
• The Bulgarian government which is led by the ‘We Continue the Change’ (PP) party now

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have adjusted up our forecast for Bulgaria’s consumer price inflation to an annual average of 11.3% in 2022 which will be an increase from 2.8% in 2021.
• The Bulgarian National Bank, which continues to shadow the European Central Bank, could be pushed to tighten policy rates in 2022 as we expect the European

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect Bulgaria’s economy to grow by just 2.5% in 2022 following 2021's growth of 4.2%.
• Rising inflationary pressures owing to persistent supply-chain issues and an energy crunch that has worsened due to the Russia-Ukraine war, will continue to weigh on business and consumer sentiment in Bulgaria.
• While fiscal

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions retain Bulgaria’s score of 69.2 in our proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) which keeps the country above the Eastern Europe average.
• We revised up the score for the STPRI following the election of a new anti-corruption movement called ‘We Continue The Change’ (PP) to lead the Bulgarian government

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast that Bulgaria will grow by 3.8% in 2022 following an estimated real GDP rise of 3.4% in 2021.
• Newfound political stability along with a potential improvement in capital expenditure will lift growth prospects for the country.
• On the downside, private consumption, the largest component of GDP will likely

Key View: Bulgaria offers a large and growing alcoholic drinks market, but this is largely coming from increasing spending, rather than consumption of alcoholic drinks. Wine is the outlier, attracting good growth in consumption, albeit from a smaller base. Rising incomes and the greater accessibility of international alcoholic drinks is driving

Key View

• Bulgaria will hold a fresh legislative election after the third and last attempt to form a government failed on September 2, as the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) refused a government-forming mandate on the grounds that it could not form a majority coalition.
• We do not expect the election will resolve the ongoing parliamentary

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our forecast for Bulgaria’s current account to swing from a deficit of 0.7% of GDP in 2020 to a surplus of 1.2% in 2021.
• Imports recovered faster than exports in early 2021, but we believe that this will reverse in H221 as external demand picks up.
• Looking ahead to 2022, we expect the current account

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we have revised up our forecast for Bulgarian average headline inflation in 2021 from 1.3% to average 1.7%. We expect that high commodity prices and recovering household consumption will keep inflationary pressures elevated in H221.
• We have adjusted our inflation forecast for 2022 from 2.2% to 2.0% due to weaker