Key View

• Spending will remain low for the healthcare sector in Brazil in 2022.
• Reduced funding allocated to the Ministry of Health will weigh on healthcare and regulatory reform.
• Political uncertainty and rising inflation pose headwinds for investment.

Investment in healthcare unlikely to increase in 2022. As Brazil enters 2022 in a

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast Brazil's current account deficit will widen to 2.3% of GDP in 2022, from an estimated 0.6% in 2021, as lower average global commodity prices see export earnings revert after a windfall year, narrowing the goods trade surplus.
• With global travel restrictions likely to be significantly looser over the

Key View

• Brazil’s GDP contracted by 0.1% q-o-q in Q321, pushing the country into a technical recession, and in line with our estimate at Fitch Solutions for annual growth of 4.7% in 2021.

• We have revised down our 2022 forecast from 1.7% to 0.7% due to mounting headwinds from a weaker external environment, high inflation and eroding

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast the Banco Central do Brasil will hike its benchmark interest rate to 9.25% by end-2021 and 10.75% in Q122, where it will hold through end-2022.
• We expect inflation will remain above 10.0% y-o-y in H122 and end 2022 at 6.0%, above the BCB's 5.0% upper target, as price increases spread across goods and

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we hold a positive view for the Brazilian alcohol sector over the medium-term (2022-2025), driven by a growing premiumisation trend, which indicates that alcohol spending growth is forecast to outperform alcohol volume growth.
• The premiumisation trend within Brazil’s alcoholic drinks sector will be underpinned by

Key View

• We forecast real household spending in Brazil to post growth of 4.0% in 2022, an improvement from the 2.8% growth in household spending estimated over 2021 and the 5.7% contraction recorded in 2020.
• We forecast that a full consumer spending recovery will take place in 2022. Brazil's vaccination drive has been quicker compared to most

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions now forecast Brazil's end-2021 benchmark interest rate forecast at 9.25%, from our prior forecast of 8.00%, in response to accelerating inflationary pressures and deteriorating investor sentiment triggered by political volatility.
• While we expect the benchmark rate will rise further in H122, our core view is for

Key view

• We expect that Brazil will see steady growth in its iron ore production in the coming years, underpinned by Vale’s plans to ramp up supply despite the recent fall in prices.
• Into 2022, Vale will see a continued production recovery on the back of its solid pipeline of projects, expertise in Brazil’s mining sector, and the low cost of

Key View:

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast Brazil’s current account deficit to narrow significantly in 2021 driven by a strong rebound in goods and services exports. With exports having outpaced our expectations in the year-to-date, we have revised our forecast to a deficit of 0.1% of GDP from 0.7% previously.
• The current account deficit will