Key View

• Our Country Risk team is now projecting that former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will win Brazil’s October 2022 presidential election.
• This outcome will predominately impact the consumer and retail sector through increased social spending and the lowering of certain taxes, freeing up and increasing disposable incomes for

Key View:

• We have revised downwards our CAGR forecasts for Brazil's medical device market, but have revised upwards our forecasts for dental products amid an increase in dental plans.
• Political instability amid Brazil’s presidential election will continue to weigh on Brazil’s medical devices market in the short-term.
• The US is Brazil's

Key View

• We expect real household spending in Brazil to grow by 1.3% y-o-y in 2022, with the consumer recovery weighed down by high, rising inflation, even as the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic begin to fade.

• High inflation will be the main downward pressure for household spending in 2022. Other risks include low real wage

Key View

• We have revised down our forecast for Brazil’s medical devices market, which is impacted by a slowdown in economic growth, due to high inflation.
• Growth in the country's medical devices market will be led by the other medical devices and consumables categories.
• The upcoming presidential election in October 2022 is creating

Key View

• We believe that, despite some infrastructure and digital services engagement shortcomings, Brazil is slowly becoming a digital-ready economy.
• Businesses are already using a wide range of mass-market connectivity solutions and applications - such as email, messaging, social media, etc - for simple day-to-day workflow processes and

Key View

• Brazil's refined fuel demand is set to grow 2.0% in 2022 on the back of relatively strong consumption of gasoline and diesel, which will outweigh a decline in demand for residual fuel.
• Gasoline consumption in Brazil is set to continue robust growth of 8.3% over 2022, while diesel is set to see more moderate growth of 1.4%. The

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions now expect the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) will extend its rate hiking cycle through its August meeting, and as a result have increased our year-end interest rate forecast to 13.75%.
• This is an upward revision from our previous forecast that the bank would hold after hiking to 13.25% on June 15. However

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our production forecast of 60.0mn 60kg bags for the 2022/23 Brazilian coffee crop, an increase of 3.5mn 60kg bags, or 6.2%, on the 2021/22 crop.
• We highlight that the potential for severe frost conditions up to the end of August 2022 poses a downside risk to our production forecast, whereas cold

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions we now expect Brazil will post 1.0% real GDP growth in 2022, up from our prior forecast of 0.7% but down from 4.6% in 2021, after growth in Q122 came in above our expectations.
• Despite the strong Q122 data, we continue to expect the economy to lose steam in the months ahead, weighed down by high inflation and