Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have lifted our Belgian 2023 real GDP growth forecast from -0.6% previously to 0.0%.
• The economy expanded at 0.1% q-o-q in Q422, which was better than we had expected. This, alongside an improved energy price and household consumption outlook, led us to revise upwards our 2023 forecast.
• Tighter monetary policy

Key View

• Belgium’s medical device market will record mid-single-digit growth over our forecast period, with consumables set to remain the largest product area.
• Belgium’s medical device market is heavily reliant on eurozone economies, which will be a key downside risk in 2023 given our view of recessions in developed economies in Europe.
• Demo

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions are revising down our 2022 and 2023 real GDP growth forecasts for Belgium from 2.1% to 1.9% and from 1.0% to 0.2% respectively. These forecasts foresee growth little better than flat in Q322, before a recession over Q422/Q123.
• Headwinds to household spending already evident in H122 will likely intensify in H222

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions are maintaining our low Short-Term Political Risk Index score of 59.4 for Belgium to reflect our continued scepticism regarding the continuity of Belgium’s ruling coalition.
• High inflation continues to pose a risk to social stability, likely resulting in further protests and presenting a trigger for government

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions believe that divisions within the ruling coalition will complicate policymaking, likely leading to a collapse in 2023, as consensus on policy beyond pandemic management remains allusive.
• We expect rising inflation to provoke popular discontent, while forcing the fractious issue of wage indexation into the

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised our 2022 Belgium current account forecast from a surplus of 1.7% of GDP to a deficit of 1.0% after the current account slipped into a surprise deficit of 0.4% in 2021.
• We expect rising import price levels and a moderate decline in exports owing to a softening demand environment to drive the current

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect final figures for Belgium’s current account to come in at a surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2021 and for the surplus to expand to 1.7% in 2022.
• We believe strong growth in goods exports will lead to a widening of the merchandise goods surplus, as vaccines remain a key export and strong growth in Belgium’s main

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions maintain our forecast for Belgium’s 2021 real GDP growth at 4.7%.
• Real GDP growth came in at 14.9% y-o-y in Q221, supported by base effects and an easing in Covid-19 containment measures, surging from -0.5% in Q121.
• Waning base effects will mean slower year-on-year growth in H221 is likely, despite our

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions now expect real GDP growth in Belgium to reach 4.7% in 2021, up from a previous forecast of 4.4% and from an estimated contraction of 6.3% in 2020.
• We expect private consumption and investment will lead the recovery, which we expect will gather momentum in H221 as a rapid rollout of vaccines supports the easing

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions maintain our real GDP growth forecast for the Belgium at 4.4% in 2021, after a 6.2% contraction in 2020.
• We expect private consumption to be the main driver of growth, as ongoing domestic Covid-19 vaccination progress should allow for looser mobility restrictions in H221.
• Higher government consumption, with the