Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain its benchmark policy rate (cash rate) at 0.10% until 2024.
• Amid economic uncertainty surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic, we expect the central bank to maintain its accommodative stance while looking past higher inflation, as it attempts to steer the economy

Key View

• The listing of new innovative medicines on the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme (PBS) will improve the commercial opportunities for innovative drugmakers.
• While the recent inclusion of treatments on the PBS is a significant step for the industry and the patients, the pressure to rationalise pharmaceutical spending remains

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised down our 2021 real GDP growth forecast for Australia from 4.5% to 4.2% with the expectation of a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) contraction in output in Q321.
• The Australian economy slightly outperformed our expectations in Q221, posting growth of 0.7% (q-o-q) and 9.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) compared

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised up our forecast for Australia’s current account surplus in 2021 from 1.2% of GDP to 2.3% in order to reflect strong commodity prices that has led to a rapid increase in the country’s exports.
• We argue that although imports will also rise strongly in 2021, domestic demand may be capped as the

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast alcoholic drinks spending per capita in Australia to grow by a compounded annual growth rate of 2.8% over 2021 to 2025, despite alcohol consumption per capita declining by a compounded annual rate of 1.2% over the same period.
• While we note that alcohol consumption levels are declining, spending on

Key View

• We forecast buns, crispbread and biscuits spending in Australia to grow by 4.3% y-o-y over the medium term (2021-2025), outperforming the annual average spending on baked goods of 2.3% over the same period.
• Spending on baked goods that are high in sugar and calorie, such as cake and puddings, will perform poorly, contracting by 1

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised up our growth forecast for Australia from 3.7% in 2021 to 4.5% and we continue to expect domestic demand to be the primary growth driver.
• Our latest view reflects the GDP outturn from Q121 which showed that the economy has returned to positive growth of 1.1% year-on-year, for the first time in

Key View

• Healthcare to remain a key spending priority in Australia.
• Investment in mental health and aged care will grow.
• Sustainability of government-funded medicines will be increasingly questioned.

Healthcare to remain a key spending priority in Australia. This is reflected by the government’s FY21 budget statement that was