Key View

• We have revised our 2022 real GDP growth forecast for Australia from 4.4% to 4.0%; following our downward revision, our forecast is now below Bloomberg consensus estimates of 4.1%.
• Our revision follows the release of the Q122 growth outturn which showed economic growth slowing to 0.8% q-o-q (from 3.4% q-o-q), on the back of economic

Key View

• Following the Australia Labour Party’s (ALP) victory at the federal election on May 21 (based on an unofficial tally), we at Fitch Solutions have maintained our Short-Term Political Risk Index Score at 71.5 out of 100.
• While we expect a smooth transition to the Labour administration with little changes to policy direction, we

Key View

• Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hike its policy rate by 25bps to 0.35%, we at Fitch Solutions have revised up our forecast for the benchmark cash rate to reach 1.10% (compared to 0.75% previously) by end-2022.
• We expect stronger wage growth and rising inflation will be drivers behind a more aggressive Reserve

Key View

• Australia will remain one of the most attractive markets globally for innovative drugmakers, owing to a pricing and reimbursement system that is considered competitive and transparent.
• However, cost containment remains high on the Australian government’s agenda and this will continue to limit potential benefits for the industry.
• Dru

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions continue to see uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the May 21 federal elections despite opinion polls pointing to the main opposition Australian Labor Party (ALP) leading the incumbent Liberal-National Coalition for now.
• Nevertheless, we expect broad policy continuity to persist after the election, as both

Key View

• We forecast real household spending in Australia to grow by a further 4.6% y-o-y over 2022, reaching AUD1.2trn, as further easing of restrictions supports a return to more normalised consumer spending patterns.
• High frequency data indicate a downward trend in unemployment across the year, supporting consumer spending, but weak

Key View

• We have revised our forecast for the RBA to embark on 65bps worth of rate hikes this year, versus our previous forecast of 40bps, taking the benchmark cash rate to 0.75% in 2022.
• Despite the central bank’s decision to stand pat on the policy rate in its April meeting, we expect stronger wage growth to allow the RBA to hike rates to

Key View

• Retail sales in Australia are showing signs of improvement, after the end of lockdowns and restrictions. However, consumer confidence remains cautious, as new daily cases of Covid-19 in Australia remain high, especially with the rise in cases in March 2022, after a downward trajectory for the first two months of 2022.
• Online retail

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised up our 2022 real GDP growth forecast for Australia to come in at 4.3% in 2022 from 3.5% previously.
• This follows the better than anticipated Q421 growth results which showed the economy grew by 3.4% q-o-q, rebounding from the contraction of 1.9% in Q321 and taking Australia’s 2021 full-year growth

Key View

• We forecast Australia’s current account surplus to narrow to 2.0% of GDP in 2022 from an estimated 3.7% in 2021.
• Australia’s trade surplus will likely decline due to strong import growth, slowdown in exports and a reversal in its terms of trade, albeit the reopening of borders will serve to benefit services export.
• Meanwhile, we