Key View

• Policy shifts and reforms within Argentina are projected to further exacerbate drug price inflation, contributing to a sustained decrease in pharmaceutical sales volumes.
• Argentina’s pharmaceutical market is expected to encounter severe challenges in 2024, with a significant contraction in sales driven by economic austerity and

Key View

• We have revised up our 2024 average inflation forecast from 260.0% y-o-y to 300%, as the removal of price caps and the end of subsidy schemes have driven inflation higher, more quickly, than we previously expected.
• Fiscal consolidation measures that remove subsidies will see price pressures peak around the middle of year, while those

Latest: The December economic activity estimator index (EMAE) showed that the economic contraction came in 4.5% y-o-y (3.1% m-o-m). This reading is between our expectations of 6-7% y-o-y and Bloomberg consensus of 1.2%. While the scope of the print was surprising, the direction was not. As expected, economic weakness was most prevalent in the

Key View

• Our core view for Argentina is that President Javier Milei will be able to successfully tighten fiscal policy, which will lead the fiscal deficit to narrow from an estimated 6.2% to 2.9% of GDP in 2024. Real GDP will contract by 1.9% in 2024, before recovering strongly in 2025 and 2026.
• In our upside scenario, Milei will cut the

Key View

• We have become increasingly upbeat in our outlook for Argentina's crude oil production, as shale oil production outperforms.
• In 2023, crude oil production grew by 8.7% y-o-y, surpassing our forecast of 6.2% y-o-y, primarily due to stronger-than-expected performance in Q423. We observed a shift in the upstream market dynamics in 2023

Key View

• New reforms will present mixed opportunities and risks for consumers and drugmakers operating in Argentina.
• We expect pharmaceutical professional associations will continue to express concerns in response to the new pharmaceutical reforms in Argentina.
• Social unrest and inflationary pressures will remain a trend and will pose

Key View

• Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s presidential election will result in an increasing role of private sector in healthcare, worsening health inequality.
• Health reforms in Argentina under President Milei include eliminating price restrictions on some medicines, which may limit affordability.
• Milei’s proposed public spending cuts

Key View

• We have revised down our 2022-2027 growth forecast for Argentina’s medical devices market due to low economic growth over the medium term.
• Expected healthcare budget declines under Javier Milei’s presidency will pose headwinds for the medical devices market in the short-to-medium term.
• The substantial depreciation of the Argentine

Latest Development: On December 12 2023, two days after the inauguration of Javier Milei as Argentina’s new president, Argentinian Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced 10 broad policy measures as the first part of the new government’s agenda of macroeconomic adjustment. This involved a 55% devaluation of the peso from ARS366/USD to ARS800/USD