News: The Zambian and Angolan governments have entered a USD5bn memorandum of understanding for a cross-border oil pipeline project. The project envisages enhanced oil trade, development of petroleum refinery infrastructure and capacity building for Zambia. Zambia indicated the project value in a preliminary phase of studies. Angola has so far only

Key View

• We expect the Banco Nacional de Angola to hold its policy rate at 16.50% through to the end of 2018, before easing further to 15.00% over 2019.
• Despite a backdrop of disinflation and weak economic growth, the BNA will be cautious in how much stimulus it implements over the coming quarters as inflation remains above its single-digit

Key View

• President Joao Lourenco's official appointment as leader of Angola's ruling MPLA party will allow him to maintain momentum in his reform agenda.
• Though investor perceptions of Angola's governance and business environment are improving, a weak macroeconomic backdrop continues to weigh on living standards and poses risks to social

Angola's short term production downgrade reflects the higher decline rates at producing fields, leaving Angola producing below its allocated OPEC quota. The start up of Kaombo in 2018 will help support production, but a serious lack of investment stemming from weak market conditions and a poor operating environment limits Angola's long term

The Angolan economy will struggle to record similar levels of growth to those seen prior to the collapse in oil prices. Limited investment into the country's dominant hydrocarbons sector will weigh on growth, while structural obstacles undercut more rapid economic diversification.

Angola's economic recovery will remain slow over the coming decade