Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that the Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 15.00% by end-2021, after leaving it unchanged at its March 2021 policy meeting.
• Inflation will begin to slow over the coming quarters, as downward pressure on the exchange rate eases.
• Meanwhile, economic

Key view:

• Angola’s mass grocery retail sector will benefit from the improvement in real household spending growth from 2021.
• We expect Angolan consumers to continue to prioritise food and non-alcoholic drinks spending in 2021 and over the remainder of our 2021-2025 forecast period.
• Angola’s government is making efforts to privatise the mass

Key view: We forecast Angola’s alcoholic drinks sector to begin to recover in 2021, following the negative impact that Covid-19 had on alcoholic drinks spending and consumption growth over 2020. Angola entered into a state of emergency on March 27 2020 in response to the Spread of Covid-19 in the country. Under this state of emergency, people’s

Key View

• Angola’s pharmaceutical market remains small compared to its regional peers.
• Digital health solutions will boost pharmaceutical spending in the long-term.
• Pharmaceutical information available online will help to regulate the market.

Angola’s pharmaceutical market remains small compared to its regional peers. Angola's

Key View

• We expect Angola to fully comply with OPEC+ cuts, which will weigh on its crude oil production over 2021.
• Given the front-loaded nature of the cuts, we will see a modest uptick in Angola’s crude oil production until 2022, thereafter production will begin to decline.
• In absence of new projects coming online and the high-risk

Key View

• The Angolan government has made efforts to attract private investment in infrastructure and increase the use of PPPs, including the implementation of a new simplified PPP law in May 2019.
• While a favourable operational risk profile supports these efforts, we expect exchange rate risks to keep foreign investors at bay in the short- to

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that Angola’s current account will shift from a surplus of 6.3% of GDP in 2019 to a deficit of 8.8% in 2020, as a collapse in oil exports outweighs a parallel decline in imports.
• We expect that oil output and exports will increase in 2021 and 2022, causing the deficit to narrow to 2.8% in 2022.
• However

Key View

• Angola’s underfunded healthcare systems will struggle to cope with the spread of Covid-19.
• Angola's Covid-19 stimulus package aims to boost healthcare systems.
• The virus will generate increased demand for hospital care and medical consumables.

Angolan healthcare systems are likely to struggle to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic. As