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• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that the Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) will cut its policy rate by 200 basis points to 18.00% in 2022.
• We expect that the kwanza will strengthen this year while average annual inflation will moderate, allowing the BNA to shift its focus from curbing price pressures to stimulating the economy.
• We

Key View: Our 2022 forecast for real household spending is growth of 3.1%, which is an acceleration from the estimate 0% growth in 2021. While we forecast total household spending (in real terms) to increase in 2022 when compared to 2021, it will be below the pre-Covid-19 levels in 2019. We project total household spending (in real terms) to

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• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that the Angolan

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• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that business-friendly reform efforts will improve investor sentiment towards Angola.
• That said, we expect that risks to social stability will remain heightened over the coming months due to weak economic conditions.
• We therefore believe that incumbent President João Lourenço and the ruling Movimento

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• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that the Banco Nacional de Angola will keep its benchmark interest rate at 20.00% over the remainder of 2021, after unexpectedly hiking the rate by 450 basis points at its monetary policy committee meeting in July.
• While the recent hike and the stability of the Angolan kwanza will act as a partial

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• Low airline traffic and tourist arrivals will likely limit demand for airport construction in Angola, underpinning our negative outlook on opportunities in the country's airport infrastructure sector.
• Angola's weak risk profile will continue to deter construction firms and investors. As the government will likely attempt to rely

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• Recent developments have improved our near-term outlook for Angola’s crude oil production, including a light oil discovery by Eni and the start-up of Total’s Zinia Phase II project.
• Moreover, the delayed launch of Angola’s licensing round and an imminent twelve well drilling campaign by state-owned Sonangol adds further upside for