Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that the Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) will cut its benchmark interest rate by 250 basis points (bps) to 17.00% by end-2023.
• We expect that disinflation and weak economic activity will encourage the BNA to make cuts in 2023.

At Fitch Solutions, we expect that the Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) will

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our Short-Term Political Risk Index score for Angola at 67.3 out of 100.
• The main political risk in 2023 comes from the gradual phasing out of fuel subsidies, given that the planned gradual removal of fuel subsidies will increase domestic pump prices and weigh on household purchasing power, likely

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that Angola’s current account surplus will narrow significantly in 2023 to 2.6% of GDP from an estimated 11.1% in 2022.
• We see moderating global oil prices and domestic oil production putting downside pressure on Angola’s goods exports in 2023.
• We expect that Angola’s external position will gradually

There may be some scope for the structure and shape of the market to evolve over the next five years, but we remain cautious about the likelihood of major changes. There are few incentives for new entrants. State-owned enterprises and private pension companies continue to dominate the market, with Standard Chartered operating as the main foreign

Key View: While we forecast robust growth of 7.4% y-o-y in Angola’s real household spending, our outlook remains largely negative over 2023. While inflation will moderate further over 2023, the decline in oil prices will result in both a depreciation of the kwanza and a general slowdown in Angola’s GDP growth. Furthermore, Angola’s undiversified

Key View

• Angola’s new target under the OPEC production cut agreement is far beyond its production capabilities and previous growth rates indicate a very low probability of hitting its target in the short term.
• Without substantial new investment, Angola’s oil production will continue to decline in the long term. We forecast that Angola’s crude

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA) party’s victory at the August 24 election will provide tailwinds for policy continuity and the policy-making process.
• That said, we expect protests – though undisruptive – to occur, as the main opposition UNITA party challenges the election

Key View: Angola is positioned to see an upturn in economic growth in 2022, due to increased oil demand and prices, which bodes well for consumer spending. Inflation, in particular food inflation, has risen since the pandemic and poses a significant risk to our forecast of real growth in the food spending category. We believe the poultry spending

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we believe that the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola party, and in turn, party leader and Angola’s President João Lourenço, will secure a victory at the upcoming August 2022 general election.
• We expect an unaltered policy direction from the President, which will ensure continuity in his reforms.
• T

Key View

• The privatisation of previously state-operated mass grocery retail (MGR) stores in Angola and increasing investments by already existing private sector players bodes well for food and non-alcoholic drinks spending growth over the short-to-medium term (2022-2026).
• The high proportion Angolan consumers allocate towards food and non