Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast the Algerian economy to contract by 8.3% in 2020.
• A combination of oil sector weakness due to OPEC+ supply cuts and headwinds for non-oil sectors from restrictive measures to slow the spread of Covid-19 will weigh on economic activity this year.
• In 2021, we are forecasting real GDP growth at 4.8%, as

Key View

• Algeria’s crude oil output will be held in check in 2020 as it participates in broader OPEC+ output cuts.
• The OPEC+ cuts are set to ease through to April 2022, but absent a rebound in investment, the outlook for Algeria’s oil and gas production and the broader upstream sector remains pessimistic.
• In this respect, a new petroleum law

Key View

• The growing political, operational and economic risks in Algeria pose an increasing threat to the future of the country's vehicle production industry, especially as the Covid-19 pandemic has made automakers very risk-averse.
• OEMs will reassess their commitment to Algeria amid the policy uncertainty and political risk, and the likely

• Sonatrach, Algeria’s national oil company, is being asked to halve its 2020 spending budget from USD14bn to just USD7bn according to the country's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune. With oil prices at multi-decadal lows, pressure on government spending will be acute.
• Despite being no longer beholden to the OPEC+ deal, we expect Algerian oil