Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we anticipate that Algeria's economy will grow by 3.6% in 2022, despite a weak start to the year when GDP growth came in at 1.6% y-o-y in Q122, as hydrocarbon production picks up over the rest of the year.
• However, a contraction in hydrocarbon production will depress growth in 2023, which we forecast at 2.5%.
• Tha

Key View

• Localisation of diabetes and cancer drug manufacturing will reduce the pharmaceutical trade deficit in Algeria.
• Legislation, innovation and strained commercial relationships will reduce opportunities for multinational firms in Algeria.
• Despite this outlook, we believe that Algeria’s government will continue to seek collaboration

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast the dinar will strengthen by 2.5% from its current spot price of DZD139.84/USD to DZD136.30/USD by end-2022 as the authorities have promised to support the currency.
• A stronger currency will feed through to slower growth in price, prompting us to revise down our 2022 inflation forecast from 9.7% to 9.0%

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised up Algeria’s 2022 economic growth forecast from 3.0% to 3.4% on higher hydrocarbon production and more fiscal support.
• We expect higher hydrocarbon prices and production will allow authorities to spend more to support economic activity, prompting an upward revision to both investment and government

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect that Algeria will post current account surpluses of 3.6% of GDP and 0.3% of GDP in 2022 and 2023 respectively on the back of elevated oil and gas prices, marking an improvement from an estimated deficit of 5.5% of GDP.
• We expect that disruptions to trade with Spain, import restrictions and a weak Algerian

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast Algeria’s current account balance will shift from an estimated deficit of 5.5% of GDP in 2021 to a surplus of 1.1% of GDP in 2022.

• The shift will come on the back of higher oil & gas prices and an increase in hydrocarbon production, which will boost exports.

• We expect import restrictions and

Key View

• Investment opportunities in Algeria’s pharmaceutical market will remain limited due to discriminatory protectionism policies.
• Growth in Algeria’s pharmaceutical market will remain subdued as market access barriers weaken commercial opportunities for innovative drugmakers.
• Despite efforts to diversify revenues away from oil, the

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect the most likely outcome of Algeria’s snap parliamentary election to be a continuation of the political status quo.
• This will do little to resolve protestors’ concerns, meaning that high levels of social unrest will continue over the coming quarters.
• Our view is underpinned by the expected low voter

Key View:

• While the adoption of e-commerce remains relatively low in Algeria, compared to other regional markets, both the food delivery and the grocery delivery sectors have recorded an uptick in demand in Algeria in 2020, as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic in the country and its subsequent lockdown measures to contain the spread of the

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect Algeria’s budget deficit to remain elevated in 2021, with our forecast for the shortfall standing at 10.1% of GDP for the year, only slightly lower than an estimated 10.9% in 2020.
• Oil production and prices will remain below levels seen in recent years, weighing on oil revenues while non-oil revenues will